Is The Housing Market Really Stabilizing?

One of the ways to measure the balance between supply and demand in real estate is to use the ‘Months Inventory of Homes for Sale’ metric. It represents the number of months it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market if no new homes were listed.

National View: Inventory is starting to grow, a sign that the market could be starting to balance out. Month’s supply was at 4.0 for July. According to Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS, said this week, “Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”

Local View: Since 2020, Westchester has seen a steady decline in the number of homes for sale, with inventory dropping and staying below 5 months. This is what we would define as a “seller's market”. Last month, the supply decreased to just 2.5 months, an indication that buyers still face increased competition, often resulting in higher prices and bidding wars.

Ralph’s Take

Keeping an eye on months' inventory is essential for understanding the balance between supply and demand in the market. While the national market shows signs of stabilizing, Westchester County still favors sellers. It's important to note that trends vary by property type and location. If you would like specific data on your current area or a place you're considering moving to, please contact me.

The "Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect”

A recent Redfin article delved into the "mortgage rate lock-in effect”, where homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes due to their advantageous low mortgage rates - which is intensifying the housing shortage. As we mentioned in July, 86% of mortgages have an interest rate below 6%, but that has been gradually decreasing over the past two years (93% in 2022, 91% in 2023, 86% this year).

Current percentage of mortgages with:

• Rates Below 6%: 85.7% (down from 92.8% in 2022)

• Rates Below 5%: 76.1% (down from 85.6% in 2022) 

• Rates Below 4%: 57.4% (down from 65.3% in 2022) 

• Rates Below 3%: 22% (down from 24.7% in 2022)

Ralph’s Take

The good news is that the lock-in effect is beginning to ease as mortgage rates decline. It's also worth noting that the surge in home values following the pandemic provided some homeowners with enough equity to make selling, or even taking on a higher mortgage rate, worthwhile — particularly when downsizing or moving to a more affordable area. Additionally, there’s an increasing number of homeowners who are mortgage-free altogether.

Developers Celebrate the Topping Out of AVE Hamilton Green

The former site of the White Plains Mall will be a mixed-use development at 200 Hamilton Avenue. This milestone signifies the completion of the building's structural framework. The project will be a significant addition to the city's landscape, featuring two residential buildings, a 12-story, 170 unit building and a 26-story, 307 unit building. Additionally, there will be retail and dining spaces aimed at enhancing urban living in White Plains. The entire project will be completed by 2025 and is led by the Cappelli Organization and RXR.

$550k Reduction in Bedford Corners

Experience quiet luxury at this ultra-private Bedford estate, a refined blend of modern rustic charm and convenience. Just minutes from trains, highways, shopping, and NYC, this 2017/2018 renovated property boasts a five-bedroom main residence, two-bedroom guest apartment, and breathtaking views across 12 acres of lush gardens, waterfalls, and orchards. Enjoy indoor and outdoor pools, a wellness wing, sports courts, and a climbing gym. The home features a grand indoor/outdoor great room, a world-class kitchen, luxurious bedroom suites, and exceptional workspaces, all designed for both grand entertaining and serene connection to nature.  Read More

Mortgage Watch 📉

Since reaching a high of 7.52% in April, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has gradually eased. Today’s we’re at 6.43%.

The rate you may be eligible for can vary. I use this figure as a proxy for how the market is shifting.

2024 Summer Real Estate Guides 🌞

Learn the keys to home buying and selling with our free real estate guides.

Congratulations to Patty and Lou on selling their home! I’m excited to share that our marketing efforts brought in 9 offers, and we closed $41k above asking price! 🥂

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Thanks for reading and have a terrific Labor Day weekend!

-Ralph

This market is not perfect. I'm here to help.🫡