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- Trump’s Housing Agenda: Unclear
Trump’s Housing Agenda: Unclear
Plus, The Nation’s Biggest Housing Shortages, Unlocking Lower Mortgage Rates, and Why Buying a Home Now is Worth It
Ralph Ragetté Jr
November 08, 2024 • Reading Time: 9 minutes
The presidential election is finally behind us, and in the weeks ahead, we’re likely to see the market gain some momentum, and I’ll be diving into how the election results might influence buyers, sellers, and investors as we head into 2025.
This week, the Federal Reserve also made another rate cut. If you’re curious how these rate cuts affect mortgage rates, check out my article from September’s 50-basis-point cut and the surprising rise in mortgage rates that followed.
Trump’s Housing Agenda: Unclear
Donald Trump’s presidential win is already impacting the mortgage market. Concerns over tax changes and tariffs have fueled inflation fears and pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield, leading to higher mortgage rates. Analysts anticipate that Trump’s administration will encourage freer markets, reduced oversight, with potential plans to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Mortgage Bankers Association has expressed optimism, expecting reduced regulatory burdens and lower costs for the mortgage industry over the next four years.
Ralph’s Take
There’s much to consider for housing under the new Trump administration, and with policy details still unfolding, mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated. As these housing policies take shape, I’ll keep you updated with the latest insights on their potential impact on our local market.
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The Nation’s Biggest Housing Shortages
Low housing supply continues to push median home prices higher, with September marking the 15th consecutive month of annual growth as prices rose 3% year-over-year, according to the latest data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). This shortage in housing stems from several major factors limiting new development, including a constrained construction workforce, fewer building permits, and restrictive zoning laws.
Here are the top 5 metro areas with the largest single-family housing shortages:
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Urban Honolulu, HI
New Haven, CT
Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
Ralph’s Take
It’s not surprising to see that our metro area leads the nation in limited supply of homes. Since the pandemic, construction employment has grown three times faster than overall job growth, but housing supply still trails demand in high-growth regions. Nearly 80% of these metro areas issued too few housing permits compared to job growth, with most falling short of the recommended ratio of one single-family permit for every two new jobs.
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Unlocking Lower Mortgage Rates
Despite skyrocketing mortgage payments, 45% of recent buyers scored rates below 5%, according to a recent Zillow survey, conducted from March to September. Here’s how they did it:
Rental income projections (60%)
Non-traditional loans like adjustable-rate mortgages (57%)
Special financing through sellers/builders (35%)
Post-purchase refinancing (25%)
Bought points to lower rates (23%)
Ralph’s Take
With mortgage rates likely to decrease gradually in 2025 and potentially remain above 6% until late in the year, buyers should look into creative financing solutions. In addition, I offer a system to help buyers identify down payment assistance programs, with around 79% of our board’s listings qualifying for some form of aid. Discover the assistance you may be eligible for here.
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Visual of the Week 🖼️
Why Buying Now Is Worth It
Torn between buying now or waiting? Don’t forget to factor in how much equity is at stake. Based on expert home price forecasts, you have the chance to gain roughly $90K in equity over the next 5 years. While that number will vary based on when and where you buy, the wealth-building opportunity is very real.
Mortgage Watch 📉
Today’s average 30-year fixed rate drops slightly from a week ago, at 6.92%.
A three-year snapshot of today’s rate: 7.41% in 2023, 7.21% in 2022, and 3.07% in 2021.
> The rate you may be eligible for can vary greatly from the daily average published via Mortgage News Daily. I use this figure as a proxy for how the mortgage market is shifting.
Saturday, November 9th - Sunday, November 10th:
11/9: Candlelight: Best of the Beatles
11/9: Family Art Workshop: Turkey Fans
11/9: Pocantico Hills Marathon
11/10: Yorktown Day Parade
Ongoing thru 11/17: The Blaze
10/28 - 11/10: Hudson Valley Restaurant Week
Monday, November 11th
Veteran’s Day Ceremonies: Bedford, Cortlandt, Croton-on-Hudson, Greenburgh, Harrison, Hastings-on-Hudson, Katonah, Lewisboro, Mamaroneck, Mount Kisco, Mount Vernon, New Rochelle, Ossining, Rye, Somers, Valhalla, White Plains, Yonkers, Yorktown
Upcoming Farmer’s Markets:
Saturday: Bronxville, Chappaqua, Greenburgh, Hartsdale, Hastings-on-Hudson, Katonah, Larchmont, Ossining, Peekskill, Pleasantville, Sleepy Hollow / Tarrytown.
Sunday: Irvington, Mount Kisco, Rye, Somers, Tuckahoe
A hundred years ago, at the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month, the “war to end all wars” came to an end. This day, intended to be observed annually, was first known as Armistice Day and later became Veterans Day.
On Monday, we pause to honor and thank our veterans for their service, courage, and sacrifice. Happy Veterans Day.
With appreciation, Ralph 🫡
This market is not perfect. I'm here to help.
Schedule a consultation to develop your end-of-year or 2025 game plan.
Email, call, or text message me at (914) 202-1101.
