A stat I didn’t expect in today’s market.

The average homeowner who sold their home in the second quarter of 2025 had owned it for 8.18 years — the longest average tenure in at least 25 years — and still earned a 50% profit on the sale, according to ATTOM.

For homeowners considering a move in the next 12 months, start shaping your plan.

With mortgage rates trending lower, equity at all-time highs, and buyer demand projected to remain strong, the right strategy could turn today’s favorable conditions into a truly exceptional sale.

Today’s Topics:

The Capital Gains Tax discussion is picking up speed
How Many Mortgages Remain Under 6%?
📉 Mortgage rates hit another new low for 2025

Tax Reform on the Table: How New Bills Could Impact Home Sellers

A bipartisan movement in Congress is building momentum to update or eliminate the capital gains tax on home sales, as decades-old exemption thresholds fail to reflect modern housing prices. The push centers on two bills: the More Homes on the Market Act, which would double and index the exemption, and the No Tax on Home Sales Act, which would eliminate it entirely for primary residences. A report by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and a new Redfin analysis highlight the growing burden, especially in high-cost areas, where many owners are locked into their homes to avoid taxes.

Here’s what you need to know:

Federal exemption thresholds, $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for married couples, have been unchanged since 1997.
NAR estimates:
- 34% of homeowners could face capital gains tax today
- 56% of homeowners by 2030
- 70% of homeowners by 2035
Redfin’s study finds:
- 25.9% of U.S. homes have appreciated by at least $250,000
- 8% of U.S. Homes have appreciated by at least $500,000.
NAR regards this as a critical juncture, advocating that homeowners shouldn’t be taxed like investors and that reform would promote equitable access to housing and stimulate market activity

Ralph’s Take

The capital gains tax debate isn’t new. Cutting or eliminating it could push more homeowners to list, easing the inventory crunch. But the biggest gains would go to those with substantial equity, while first-time buyers might see little benefit. The challenge is spurring movement without widening the gap between owners and hopeful buyers. In 2023, NAR’s chief economist proposed a temporary capital gains holiday for investors selling to first-time buyers, showing how tax policy can shape supply. Until Washington strikes that balance, sellers should make tax planning part of their strategy well before the “For Sale” sign goes up.

Westchester Weekly Market Tracker 📈

‘Coming Soon’: 28 ↑+15
New Listings: 153 ↓-16
Price Reductions: 67 ↓-22
Pending Sales: 171 ↑+8
Closed Sales: 227 ↑+31

💰 Find your home’s value here: What’s my home worth?

_{Property Type: Residential. OneKey MLS, Inc. 8/7/25 - 8/15/25.}

Share of Mortgages Under 6% Continues to Drop

Realtor.com reports that just over 81% of homeowners with mortgages have mortgage rates below 6%, and more than half have rates under 4%. However, economists anticipate that by the end of the year, the share of mortgages below 6% may decline to roughly 75%, as newer borrowers are likely taking higher‑rate loans. Additional findings:

Rates Below 6%: 81.2% (85.7% in 2024, 92.8% in 2022)
Rates Below 5%: 71.3% (76.1% in 2024, 85.6% in 2022)
Rates Below 4%: 53.4% (57.4% in 2024, 65.3% in 2022)
Rates Below 3%: 20.7% (22% in 2024, 24.7% in 2022)
Rates Above 6%: 18.8% (the highest level since 2016)

Ralph’s Take

Yes, the “lock-in effect”, where homeowners are reluctant to sell due to their low mortgage rates, has kept many off the market, but it hasn’t brought real estate activity to a halt. Life events like marriage, growing families, divorce, and job changes continue to be the primary drivers behind buying and selling. In a recent survey, 40% of prospective buyers said they’d be ready to purchase if mortgage rates fell below 6% — perhaps that’s the new “magic number.” While we’re not there yet, the share of low-rate mortgages has continued to decline since last July.

Heritage Hills Condo Sold in Five Days 🥳

Congratulations to my sellers on the sale of their condo in Heritage Hills! We kicked off our marketing campaign two weeks ago, with showings starting at last Saturday’s open house. The interest we generated led quickly to multiple offers, and the sellers accepted one with outstanding terms.

The sale will mark the highest price ever achieved for a Guilford unit in Heritage Hills. 🥂

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